Bowl Week: Bring on the Bearcats

Good morning, Gators. I hope you and your families had a wonderful holiday and are looking forward to a great 2010. The old proverb "May you live in interesting times" sure is working for the Gators right now. Per my post yesterday, I was elated to hear that Urban was going to try the leave of absence route and work on his health. I thought some very revealing things were said in the press conference yesterday (by the way, we can never complain about ESPN's lack of coverage for UF again, that was a 90 minute infomercial leading up to the press conference. I loved that they kept rolling the tape of him holding up the 2 crystal ball trophies. You gotta believe that Tennessee/Georgia fan had to be going nuts watching that), but I think the best was when Urban said he'd call Spurrier. If anyone can clue him in on how to find time to take it easy, its SOS. I don't ever think Urban gets to where he's scheduling spring practice around tee times, but he definitely could stand to delegate and spend more time out at his lake place and with his friends and family.

As I was preparing to write the Goodbye Urban post I made a list of all the "traditions" he'd brought to UF in just 5 years- The Gator Walk, coats/ties pregame, the Champions Club, singing the Alma Mater and Orange and Blue in front of the band post game, getting everyone other than the Kappa Alpha block to learn the words to Orange & Blue, Friday Night Lights recruiting event for high school juniors, texting recruits (he singlehandedly caused the NCAA to limit texting), freshman helmet stripes but no freshman hazing, doing pre-season training camp off the practice field and moving to the practice field only for game week, The Plan to Win, expressing love to his players, building the Gateway of Champions, and winning like nobody else has. No wonder the guy is tired. It isn't just game planning, he's been program planning and he's his own quality control/assurance department. I hope he, his family and his friends can collaborate to where he can make it another 5 years. Based on what we've all seen so far, is there anybody willing to doubt that he'll find a way?

OK, with all the Urban news aside, we got a game to play Friday. With all the coaching news on both sides this has to be one of the goofiest bowl games to predict in recent history. For the Bearcats, the players have to be pissed that their head coach bolted for a better job and their interim coach will do so after the bowl game. If I'm coaching UC I'm telling them they have a chance to run the table, beat the defending national champs and the famous Tim Tebow, and they can also show that Brian Kelly wasn't the only reason they could win.

For Florida, I think the motivation is very different. I think Urban's retirement and change of heart has to energize these guys and make them want to win one for the guy who obviously has laid so much on the line on their behalf. I think the seniors like Tebow and Spikes will command everyone's best, and I think the juniors who are planning on coming out early will give it their all to show the NFL GMs why they should pick them early in the draft.

Of course, the reason this is a hard one to pick is that both locker rooms could implode, decide to have a big time on Bourbon Street instead and just mail it in on Friday night.

Talentwise, make no mistake, Cincinnati is very good. The Big East isn't the SEC, but Cincy's undefeated record in spite of losing their starting QB for several games is very impressive and remember that this is their second straight conference title/BCS bowl appearance (they lost to Va Tech in the Orange Bowl last year). They won at Oregon State (don't laugh, USC never can), in Tampa against USF, and had a huge comeback at Pitt. Their offense is incredibly potent, averaging just under 40 a game, and their defense averages giving up under 21. They throw more than they run, averaging 320 per game in the air to 143 on the ground. As a result, their opponents tend to win the time of possession game (averaging almost 10 more minutes with the ball than the Bearcats) but lose on the scoreboard. QB Tony Pike was in the Heisman race before he went down to injury but his backup may have outplayed him so they're deeper than Florida at QB. Their best receiver is #1 Mardy Gilyard and they had 8 returning starters on offense. On D, they are quick but somewhat undersized on the line. On special teams they were only 12/18 on field goals and average under 40 yards per punt but they do a good job on kick coverage based on their stats.

I think Florida's strategy will be to make a bunch of first downs and keep Cincy's offense off the field. I think our interior line should be able to push these guys around and open up some good option opportunities for Tebow, the backs and Hernandez. Pike and Company have been great, but they haven't faced a defensive personnel like ours. If Joe Haden can handle AJ Green and Julio Jones, I think he'll be fine with Gilyard. I have no idea how much Charlie Strong has been involved with the defense in the prep for this game, but apparently he reviewed Louisville's game tape against Cincy from earlier this year (Cincy won 41-10). I cannot fathom that our defense wants to go out like they did in Atlanta against Bama, and have to believe they have too much pride to watch the Bearcats score 30+. I think Dunlap will play like a man possessed coming off the edge and if Cincy can't at least keep us honest by running the ball then Tony Pike is not going to have much fun. On special teams I'm worried about the loss to Brandon James. I think Rainey and Demps are capable returners but that assumes they can catch the ball cleanly (there's the rub). We have the best punter in the conference and hopefully Sturgis has another good night indoors.

My pick assumes we show up ready to play and don't wear those cursed white helmets. Assuming those two things I see a Big Ass Whippin' in the Big Easy: UF 34-Cincy 20.

Here's how I see the other bowl games of interest-

Independence Bowl- The Dawgs have something like 2 coaches left on defense, but based on their performances this year that might be a good thing. Texas A&M looked good in their last game against Texas so this one will come down to who shows up ready to play. I'll take the SEC just because I'm a homer: Georgia 27-Aggies 20.

Champs Sports Bowl- The U is looking for a 10 win season and has to be fired up after watching "The U" for several weeks on ESPN. Wisconsin went 9-3 in the Big 10 and is slow and got hammered by the Noles in the same game last year. Speed still kills... The U 33-Badgers 20.

Chick Fil A Bowl- Kiffie has to be saddened to hear that Urban is coming back, but I bet he had a good night Saturday thinking UF was in trouble. Still, Va Tech has already lost once in the Georgia Dome and I think they'll do it again in a close one. Vols 24-Va Tech 19.

Outback Bowl- Auburn plays Northwestern who, I admit, I never saw play this year. Like all bowl games, its a matter of who shows up to play. Knowing nothing about Northwestern I'll pick the Tigers to win just because they've seen better competition but again, I've never seen a single snap from Northwestern so this is pure guess. War Eagle 23-PurplePeopleEaters 17.

Capital One Bowl- I think LSU has more talent than Penn State, but I have no doubt that PSU is better coached. Penn State lost to both good teams on their schedule and will have to figure out how to play against the speed of LSU, but I'm taking Joe Pa over Les Miles purely on coaching. PSU 20-LSU 17.

Gator Bowl- The Noles sold this game out in 2 hours, and many of Bowden's former players will form a tunnel for the team to enter through. I think the Noles remain shitty on defense, but West Virginia is similarly bad. I'm taking the Noles to win one for Bobby against the team that gave him his first shot in D-1. Noles 35-WVU 28.

PapaJohns Bowl- The Head Ball Coach faces a UConn team who seemingly lost 5 games by a combined total of 5 points. The HBC isn't famous for bowl success and UConn will come to play. I'm taking the Huskies. UConn 27-Cocks 21.

Cotton Bowl- Ole Miss put a beat down on Texas Tech last year in the same game. This year they face a very talented Okie State team. I haven't been impressed at all with the Rebs this year so I'll take the Cowboys, OSU 36-Ole Miss 27.

Liberty Bowl- I bet Bobby Petrino spent Saturday night hoping his phone would ring from a 352 area code. I have to believe that Arky can get it done over the 9-4 ECU Pirates. Hogs 35-East Carolina 28.

Rose Bowl- Ohio State gets Oregon in a showdown of teams from states that start with the letter "O". O, how I hope Mrs. Report and I are drinking somewhere on Bourbon Street to watch this one. Ducks 27-Bucks 23.

Fiesta Bowl- I think it sucks that TCU and Boise State don't get to play against bigger name opponents, but one of them will get their first loss. TCU should have the advantage of crowd support, but I'm not picking against Boise State in that dome. Broncos 33-TCU 28.

Orange Bowl- Georgia Tech gets Iowa down in Miami. The only thing more awkward than BYU fan in Vegas is maybe Iowa fan on South Beach. Tech won the ACC and Iowa struggled to beat almost everybody, but I love the way Kirk Ferentz prepares for bowl games. I think the Hawkeye defense will be ready to go against the triple option. Iowa 20-Tech 17.

BCS Title Game- I am dying to pick Texas in this one purely because they'll spend 4 weeks leading up to the game hearing about how good Bama is and Mack Brown has already won a big title in the Rose Bowl. My big question about the Tide is whether they can come in with the same purpose and focus they had against Florida and it isn't out of the question that they shot their wad in beating the Mighty Gators after waiting 364 days to do it. Still, with Bama's D and Texas's last two shaky games I have to pick the Tide to get it done. Barring turnovers I think Bama wins comfortably. Bama 27-Texas 17. Assuming I'm right, that means 4 straight titles for the SEC.

Enjoy this last one, Gators. If this weekend's events did nothing else, it will hopefully make us all more appreciative of what we've had the last 5 years and enjoy every opportunity to see these guys get after it. I'll give you my review of the Sugar Bowl when I get back next week.

Go Gators!

BS